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SOURCE The Conference Board
MUMBAI, India, May 20, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for India increased 0.7 percent in April. The index stands at 178.1 (2004 = 100), following a 0.2 percent increase in March and a 0.9 percent decline in February. Seven of the eight components contributed positively to the index in April.
"April's gain in the Leading Economic Index for India was driven by improvements across most of its components," said Jing Sima, Economist at The Conference Board. "Exports and service sectors improved, while stock prices and bank loans both surged. Although the six-month change in the LEI turned slightly negative and the Coincident Economic Index remains weak, both have improved significantly from 2013's steep declines, suggesting that the current slowdown in the economy may be bottoming out."
Bart van Ark, Chief Economist at The Conference Board, added: "The sharp month-over-month improvement in the LEI indicates strong momentum for a recovery in India later this year. While there are still many risks and uncertainties, the post-election environment might provide a breeding ground for bold policy initiatives that can bank on the green shoots we are observing in the LEI."
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for India, which measures current economic activity, declined 0.9 percent in April to 198.0 (2004 = 100), following a 0.8 percent increase in March and a 1.6 percent decline in February. Two of the four components contributed positively to the index in April.
The Conference Board LEI for India aggregates eight economic indicators that measure economic activity in India. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for India
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for India was launched in September 2013. Plotted back to April 1990, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of India. The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, Brazil, China, the Euro Area, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
The eight components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for India include:
Interest Rate Spread (10-Year Government Bond minus 91-Day Treasury Bill) (RBI)
Stock Prices: SENSEX Average (Bombay Stock Exchange Limited)
Real effective exchange rate index, 36 countries (RBI)
Real Money Supply: M3 Bank Credit to Commercial Sector (RBI)
Merchandise Exports, f.o.b. (Ministry of Commerce and Industry)
Cargo Handled: Domestic and International (Airport Authority of India)
IP: Capital Goods (Central Statistical Organization)
PMI: Services Business Activity (HSBC/Markit)
For more information including full press release and technical notes:
To view The Conference Board calendar of 2014 indicator releases:
About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. For additional information about The Conference Board and how it can meet your needs, visit our website at www.conference-board.org.
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