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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for China Increased in April

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SOURCE The Conference Board

BEIJING, May 22, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China increased 0.9 percent in April. The index stands at 288.1 (2004 = 100), following a 1.1 percent increase in March and a 0.9 percent increase in February. Three of the six components contributed positively to the index in April.

"The LEI for China increased in April," said Andrew Polk, resident economist at The Conference Board China Center in Beijing, "but its overall expansion remains weaker than the latter half of 2013 and underlying volatility in the economy has increased. Subdued LEI growth, combined with growth rates in industrial activity and retail sales running at their lowest since 2004, suggest that the slower trend of economic growth will continue into the third quarter at least."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for China, which measures current economic activity, increased 0.4 percent in April to 257.1 (2004 = 100), following a 1.3 percent increase in March and no change in February. Four of the five components contributed positively to the index in April.

The Conference Board LEI for China aggregates six economic indicators that measure economic activity in China. Each of the LEI components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for China was launched in May 2010. Plotted back to 1986, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of China. The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia, Brazil, the Euro Area, France, Germany, India, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China include:

Total Loans Issued by Financial Institutions (source: People's Bank of China)
5000 Industry Enterprises Diffusion Index: Raw Materials Supply Index (source: People's Bank of China)
NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: PMI Supplier Deliveries (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
Consumer Expectations Index (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
Total Floor Space Started (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: Export Orders (source: National Bureau of Statistics)

For more information including full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=11

To view The Conference Board calendar of 2014 indicator releases:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. For additional information about The Conference Board and how it can meet your needs, visit our website at www.conference-board.org.

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Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes


2014

6-month


Feb

Mar

Apr

Oct to Apr

Leading Economic Index (LEI)

282.5

p

285.5

p

288.1

p


   Percent Change

0.9

p

1.1

p

0.9

p

5.2

   Diffusion

58.3


58.3


50.0


50.0









Coincident Economic Index (CEI)

252.7

p

256.1

p

257.1

p


   Percent Change

0.0

p

1.3

p

0.4

p

2.8

   Diffusion

60.0


80.0


80.0


100.0









n.a. Not available    p Preliminary    r Revised

Indexes equal 100 in 2004

Source: The Conference Board      All Rights Reserved

 

©2012 PR Newswire. All Rights Reserved.

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