Happy Thanksgiving!
Turkey Day this year has checked in as an anomalously cold and snowy one across the Valley. Temperatures have only peaked in the low-to-mid thirties across the region, and heavy lake-effect snow is falling in areas north of I-80.
While Thanksgiving does come at a time of falling temperatures, our area is still in the midst of autumn. The holiday’s spot on the fourth Thursday of November puts its specific date between November 22nd and November 28th, right at the end of the penultimate month of the year. Average highs can range from 47°F on the earlier side to 44°F on the later dates.

 


As for this year’s date- November 27th- our average high is 45°F, and temperatures drop below freezing overnight, with an average low of 30°F.
Additionally, both rain and snow are possible. Snow typically falls every third year, and usually comes from lake-effect snow systems, though some outliers exist. On average, around half of thanksgivings are completely dry.
It’s been rather mild for the past five years. Both 2020 and 2022 featured thanksgivings with highs in the fifties. Three of these years, specifically 2020, 2021, and 2022, had some sort of precipitation. The former two years were both rainy, while last year’s Turkey Day provided a messy mix of rain and snow. 0.7” of snow accumulation was officially recorded at the airport that day.
While most of these years were unseasonably warm, there haven’t been any astonishing outliers that our area has dealt with. You’ll have to go back 91 years to find the warmest Thanksgiving on record, with thermometers recording a balmy 69°F. This year’s Turkey Day will more closely resemble the one from 2013, whose high temperature of 25°F is the coldest on record.
15 years ago, the rainiest Thanksgiving on record occurred, where the airport recorded 1.38” of pure rain during a warmer-than-average day. Almost five inches of snow fell during the Valley’s snowiest day in 2005.
While no records will be broken this year, the snow and chill this year will be something we haven’t seen in quite some time. You’ll have to go seven thanksgivings back to get to one that will be colder than this one, as 2018’s Turkey Day registered a bitterly cold high of just 25°F. Snowfall, perennially tricky to pin down, could be the most we’ve seen since that record-breaking 2005. Any accumulations above 0.7” would beat last year’s sloppy total. Currently, we are forecasting for 1 to 3 inches of snow to fall, especially close to midnight. If the airport gets more than 2.1”, this would beat 2014’s snow totals, making the holiday the snowiest one in twenty years. While just a trace of snowfall fell on Thanksgiving 1950, this set the stage for the largest snowfall this area has seen in the last 150 years. A deepening low-pressure system became stuck between two strong high-pressure systems, dumping persistent heavy snowfall across our entire viewing area. The storm total accumulation of 28.7” at the Youngstown-Warren regional airport still holds the title for the most snow ever recorded in a single event. Across the border in New Castle, a resounding 30 inches of snow fell. 
While the rest of the week will not compare to what we saw in 1950, we still recommend taking caution while travelling, as heavy lake-effect snow will continue through Friday night north of our area. On its heels, another batch of rain and snow will likely move through Saturday and Sunday. For any travel-related updates, make sure to download the Storm Tracker 21 app.

 

Click here for more about the record-breaking 1950 snowstorm.