Analysis: Reduced earthquake risk in the Valley
The chances of the Valley and the rest of Ohio experiencing an earthquake linked to injection wells or gas and oil well drilling have decreased according to a report by the United State Geological Survey on Monday.
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WASHINGTON - The chances of the Valley and the rest of Ohio experiencing an earthquake linked to injection wells or gas and oil well drilling have decreased according to a report by the United State Geological Survey on Monday.
USGS analysts released a report and the first-ever maps showing potential ground-shaking hazards from both human-induced and natural earthquakes for the rest of this year.
In the past, USGS maps only identified natural earthquake hazards.
“The good news is that Ohio has passed with flying colors,” says USGS Seismologist Dr. George Choy.
Seismologists estimate that the chance of damage from seismic activity in the Mahoning Valley and the rest of Ohio is less than 1 percent for the balance of 2016.
However, scientists warn that oil and gas rich regions of Oklahoma, Kansas, Colorado, New Mexico, Texas, and Arkansas may experience damage if the induced seismicity in those areas continues unabated.
Dozens of studies were used to come up with the seismic forecast, including research on past tremors in the Youngstown area.
On December 31, 2011, a 4.0 magnitude earthquake was reported in the city of Youngstown. Research linked that tremor to a class II brine injection well which was closed as a result.
In March 2014, several tremors were recorded in the area of hydraulically fractured gas wells near the Carbon Limestone Landfill in Poland. Five earthquakes were measured over the course of two days at that time.
Although the USGS acknowledges that evidence shows a link between fracking and seismic activity, they say injection wells are a far more common cause of induced earthquakes.
The Ohio Department of Natural Resources regulates so called class II wells which are used to inject fluids, primarily oil-field brine, into deep, underground geological formations for disposal or for secondary oil recovery. Oil-field brine is a saline by-product generated during oil and gas well operations.
Dr. Choy tells 21 News that Ohio's regulatory agencies have done a good job reducing the risk of induced earthquakes in the state. He says that short term hazards from induced seismic activity can be turned off if regulations or economics can stop or reduce oil and gas exploration
One recent example of state regulation came in 2014 when the Ohio Oil and Gas Commission shut down a brine injection well in Weathersfield after a small earthquake. The operator of the well is currently challenging the decision in court.
Although the USGS predicts that “man-made” earthquake risks are reduced in Ohio, the assessment identifies the oil and gas producing areas of Belmont, Guernsey, Harrison, and Washington counties as regions having the future potential for induced seismicity.
The entire USGS report may found by following this link.