"We're gonna win this thing, I can feel it all over the state," said Valley congressman and Democratic US Senate candidate Tim Ryan on Friday. He didn't temper his confidence with less than two weeks until Election Day.

He toured the Cleveland Cliffs coke plant in Warren, and told reporters his campaign's efforts to appeal to voters across Ohio's diverse landscape is coming together in the home stretch.

"We've got a great coalition of Democrats, Republicans, the exhausted majority and independents who are tired of the extremism and want a moderate voice and that's me," Ryan said.

That's despite mixed poll numbers.
One shows Ryan ahead by four, but still within the margin of error.
Another shows his Republican opponent JD Vance with a four percent advantage.
It also indicates undecided voters breaking for Vance.
But Ryan tells 21 News his internal numbers show a big advantage with independent voters.
One longtime Valley journalist and editorial writer calls the race a referendum on former president Trump, and a test of his grasp on Ohio politics.

"In order for a Democratic statewide candidate to win statewide, they need at least 60 percent of the vote in Mahoning county," said Bertram DeSouza. "Joe Biden didn't get that."

DeSouza also says early voting numbers in Ohio not being what Democrats hoped for could be misleading.

"I'm beginning to wonder whether, with all the questions about how safe balloting is and elections are, whether a lot of people are actually waiting until Election Day to cast their ballots."

We'll all find out in 11 days.