Today marks the first day of meteorological winter, though it seems that Mother Nature got a head start.

The month started on a rather quiet note, with temperatures and conditions being rather seasonable. Election day came and went under fantastic conditions, though a quick-hitting rain system moved through a few days later on November 7th. More rain followed on November 9th, though enough cold air wrapped in on the backside that the Youngstown-Warren Regional Airport got its first snowflakes of the season. The rest of the month was dominated by a chilly and active pattern, with a few mild stretches. The area saw widespread rain around mid-month before conditions chilled and lake-effect snow moved through North of I-80. Thanksgiving Travellers had to deal with wintry, windy weather after widespread rain fell towards the final week of the month. Some places in Trumbull County received a foot of resultant lake-effect snow.

Officially, the airport’s average temperature for the month was 39.2°F. Each day's observed high and low temperatures are taken into account. This is 2.3°F below the average November temperature of 41.5°F. The month is the first to finish below average since August, and the greatest magnitude below average since our very chilly January.

While there were several days with precipitation, the monthly observation of 2.16” of liquid-equivalent rain is 8/10ths of an inch below the average November precipitation.

November also marks the typical month when our area sees its first snow. On average, the airport receives its first snow on November 5th. Mother Nature did a decent job arriving on time, as our first accumulation came in on November 9th.

Through the rest of the month, snowfall came in bits and pieces. There were four separate days where the airport measured an inch of snow or greater, ending the month off with 6.4”- around two inches above average. Interestingly, the airport’s snowfall this year was greater than the previous three combined November snowfalls.

As you might expect, however, snowfall around the Valley can be quite different depending on where you go. The airport, located in central Trumbull County, is typically more prone to lake-effect snowfall, allowing the site to observe greater totals than most other spots. In this case, the Thanksgiving snow event disproportionately impacted the lake-effect snow belts, causing locations in Northwest Trumbull County to get snow totals over ten inches, while locations in Columbiana County are still waiting for their first inch of snowfall this season. 

November also comes at a time of year when clouds ramp up. Skies this month were overcast 53% of the time, more than double the rate they were throughout October. Skies typically get cloudier in the wintertime thanks to the air’s interactions with the Great Lakes, prompting cold air to mix with warmer waters, allowing for clouds to form. This topic will be covered in greater detail in a future Weather 101.

How does this impact Youngstown’s yearly weather trends? November has brought the year’s average temperature to just a hair above average. A cold December- which is getting more and more likely to come to fruition- may make this year Youngstown’s first below-average temperature year in ten years. The brief surplus of rain fell back down below average this month, as our area is still teetering quite close to “normal”.

How will December fare? After a chilly first day of the month, many models and experts have agreed that this month will trend colder and wetter than average. Eric Wilhelm spotlighted December as likely the coldest month relative to average this winter. The U.S. Climate Prediction Center agrees, releasing daily maps that align with colder-than-average weather for the next week, two weeks, and 3-4 weeks, though confidence erodes later on in the month. Marginally wetter weather is also favored. For those who are fans of snow, this upcoming month is showing some perfect signs.

For further information, check out Gavin’s analysis of the past few months’ weather: