The month of September, while less than notable on paper, will go down as a rather interesting one in the weather books.

That’s because the month featured a stunningly remarkable period of unremarkable weather, headlined by bone-dry conditions for the month’s middle half.

The first month of meteorological fall was coming off the coattails of a cool, dry August. Labor Day ended the 179th rendition of the Canfield Fair, the Valley’s coldest homecoming since 1997. Below-average temperatures and occasional lake-enhanced rain chances represented the first week of the month. By September 6th, the airport had received just over a fifth of an inch of rainfall. It would take fifteen more days for the airport to get another drop of rain.

Through the middle of the month, repetitive high pressure kept the area bone dry. This also coincided with rapid drought intensification. The month opened with just a small sliver of Columbiana County under Moderate Drought (D1), though this classification grew to encompass the entire Valley by September 18th. Extreme Drought (D3) was recorded in Columbiana County, something that had never been seen since the U.S. Drought Monitor was established in 1999.

Much-needed rainfall fell on September 21st and 22nd. Ironically, the airport’s 2-day rainfall of 2.21” was the highest 2-day total on these dates on record. After residual rain fell later that week, the pattern turned quiet and warm yet again, solidifying the area’s third straight dry month and a switch back to above-average warmth.

 

 

Officially, the airport’s average temperature throughout the month was recorded at 64.9°F. This takes into account the observed high and low temperatures each day. This is 1.7°F above the average September temperature of 63.2°F. While noticeably above average, the month didn’t necessarily break any records; it is tied for the 26th-warmest September on record.

 

 

The month of September checked in as the third straight dry one in the Valley. The monthly observation of 2.58” is over an inch below the average of 3.84” in September. Before the region’s rain on September 22nd, this was the driest start to the month since 2009. Unprecedentedly dry and warm weather, combined with a degradation of long-term rainfall departures, allowed the Valley to end the month in the midst of an impactful drought. As of October 1, the majority of the region is under drought conditions, except for Mahoning and southern Trumbull Counties, which are currently stated as Abnormally Dry (D0). Read more on how drought is classified here.

 

 

How does this impact Youngstown’s yearly weather trends? Now that three-quarters of the year is complete, we can begin to discern how 2025 will play out compared to climatology. September has strengthened the chances of the year finishing above-average for the tenth-straight year. To date, the year stands at a third of a degree above its all-time average, though still the coldest start to a calendar year since 2015.

 

 

Three straight dry months took the precipitation surplus down to a deficit for the first time since April. The airport has taken in 30.73” of rain this year, with the average just under 34 inches.

 

 

Will October continue September’s warm, dry trend? Currently, our long-range outlooks are trending towards the same pattern, as a result of a predicted upper-level ridging pattern, favorable for warm, stable weather. Confidence degrades closer to the end of the month, where typical weather patterns get more volatile as a result of standard cold season changes.

 

 

For further information, check out Gavin’s analysis of the past three months’ weather: