"There's about five to nine to 10 percent of the voters that are going to swing this election one way or the other," says former Mahoning County Democratic Party chair David Betras.

Independent voters are driving a surge in early voting here in The Valley and across Ohio.
It's a trend that some political minds see as a product of the last eight months, not the last four years.

"The issues that voters are most concerned about now is facemasks, COVID and the economy," Betras said, adding that the race for president is much closer than polls show.
Betras says turnout will be key in determining which way the independent vote sways.

"Your area gets attention when you get a big vote, so if you want your area to get attention from either party, you have to turn out in big numbers."

Michael Steele, former Republican National Committee Chair, tells 21 News those independents could be a wild card this time around.
He says that's because usually they break center-right, but that that's only when the Republican candidate is a "traditional" conservative.

"If you give me a guy or a gal who I disagree with on policy but is a fine, upstanding individual versus someone I agree with on policy but is a slug, no, I'm gonna go with the guy who's kind of stand-up because I'd rather have the fight over the policies," said Steele.

Steele says this time around, Joe Biden is the more "traditional" candidate, which may signal a break his way.
In Betras' mind, only a few states plus Florida will play a big role in who gets that break, and Ohio ISN'T one of them.

"Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin," he said.