Poll: Trump leads Clinton in Ohio
Democrat Hillary Clinton's October momentum has come to a halt as she clings to a small lead in Pennsylvania, while Republican Donald Trump moves ahead in Ohio, according to a Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll released on Wednesday.
HAMDEN, Conn. - Democrat Hillary Clinton's October momentum has come to a halt as she clings to a small lead in Pennsylvania, while Republican Donald Trump moves ahead in Ohio, according to a Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll released on Wednesday.
The poll, conducted from October 27 through November 1 found that in Florida, North Carolina and Ohio, which allow early voting, Clinton has leads of 6 to 26 percentage points among voters who already have cast ballots.
Ohio: Trump leads Clinton 46 - 41 percent, with 5 percent for Johnson and 2 percent for Stein. Clinton and Trump were tied 45 - 45 percent October 17;
Pennsylvania: Clinton leads Trump 48 - 43 percent, with 3 percent for Johnson and 3 percent for Stein. Clinton topped Trump 47 - 41 percent October 17.
Four-way races which list both presidential and vice-presidential candidates show:
Florida: Clinton gets 46 percent to Trump's 45 percent, with 2 percent for Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson and 2 percent for Green party candidate Jill Stein. Clinton edged Trump 48 - 44 percent October 17;
North Carolina: Clinton at 47 percent to Trump's 44 percent, with 3 percent for Johnson. Clinton squeaked by Trump 47 - 43 percent October 27;
"After a two-year campaign which has produced the most unpopular presidential candidates in American history, the election comes down - as it historically does - to a handful of swing states," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.
"No one has been elected president since 1960 without carrying two of the key swing states, Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. And, this year, North Carolina has been added to the mix. All four of these key states remain close entering the final days," Brown added.
"Florida, which has the largest cache of electoral votes, is a virtual tie and North Carolina is almost as close. Donald Trump's strength is with independent voters."
Head-to-head matchups among likely voters show:
- Florida: Clinton at 47 percent to Trump's 45 percent;
- North Carolina: Clinton at 48 percent to Trump's 46 percent;
- Ohio: Trump at 47 percent to Clinton's 44 percent;
- Pennsylvania: Clinton leads Trump 50 - 44 percent.
Ohio
Ohio early voters back Clinton 58 - 32 percent.
Trump squeaks out a tiny lead in the Ohio unfavorable race, with a negative 39 - 56 percent favorability, compared to Clinton's negative 37 - 59 percent score.
The Republican's lead is built on his 48 - 38 percent lead among men, compared to Clinton's 44 - 44 percent tie among women.
Trump leads 88 - 5 percent among Republicans and 48 - 30 percent among independent voters. Democrats back Clinton 89 - 7 percent.
"The 48 - 30 percent lead for Donald Trump among independent voters is pretty overwhelming. Ohio has a large number of voters that the Trump campaign has targeted. The Buckeye state is full of those who feel they have lost their jobs because of unfair trade treaties, and non-college educated whites," Brown said.
Pennsylvania
Clinton is ahead in the unfavorable race in Pennsylvania, with a negative 41 - 56 percent favorability rating, which is less bad than Trump's negative 37 - 60 percent score.
Pennsylvania women likely voters back Clinton 56 - 36 percent, outweighing Trump's 51 - 39 percent lead among men.
Clinton leads 85 - 12 percent among Democrats and 42 - 38 percent among independent voters. Trump takes Republicans 85 - 9 percent.
"Hillary Clinton's solid 6-point lead two weeks ago is now a less comfortable 5-point lead, but it's a lead just the same at a time when every percentage point is scrutinized and any poll movement heightens anxiety," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.
Florida
Hillary Clinton is ahead 48 - 42 percent among Florida voters who already have cast ballots.
Florida likely voters don't like either candidate, giving Clinton a negative 44 - 54 percent favorability rating and giving Trump a negative 40 - 57 percent favorability.
The gender gap is small as women likely voters back Clinton 49 - 43 percent, while men go 47 percent for Trump and 44 percent for Clinton. White voters back Trump 58 - 34 percent while non-white voters back Clinton 72 - 21 percent.
Trump leads 88 - 7 percent among Republican voters and 46 - 40 percent among independent voters. Clinton takes Democrats 86 - 8 percent.
"Racial patterns are clearly evident in the Florida voting. Hillary Clinton is getting about a third of whites in Florida, to Trump's 58 percent. Non-whites, however, break strongly for her," Brown said.
North Carolina
North Carolina early voters back Clinton 58 - 36 percent.
The candidates are running neck and neck in the unfavorable race, with a negative 41 - 54 percent favorability rating for Clinton and a negative 40 - 53 percent rating for Trump.
North Carolina women likely voters back Clinton 52 - 42 percent, while men back Trump 46 - 41 percent. White voters go to Trump 59 - 33 percent, while non-white voters back Clinton 77 - 10 percent.
Trump leads 88 - 6 percent among Republicans and 45 - 38 percent among independent voters. Democrats back Clinton 91 - 6 percent.
"Hillary Clinton has a narrow edge over Donald Trump in North Carolina when it comes to keeping her party base home. She has a tad better score among women than Trump has among men. But the closeness of the North Carolina race shows itself in what voters think of the candidates," Brown said.
