TRUMBULL COUNTY, OH - For the first time since 1983, Dan Polivka does not hold political office in Trumbull County.

"The political stuff that comes with it, I'm not missing that as much but I like still helping people," Polivka says.

Polivka, Trumbull County's Democratic Party Chairman, lost his bid for re-election as County Commissioner in 2020. He was one of several democrats, including Sean O'Brien and Gil Blair, to get unseated by republicans.

"That red wave was coming through here and they were voting for Trump and voting straight ticket down and we never really experienced that," Polivka said.

The red wave didn't just take place in the Mahoning Valley, but all across the state. According to the Cook Political Report, four of the top five U.S. Congressional districts that shifted the hardest in favor of Republicans from 2016 to 2020 were in Ohio. Tim Ryan's 13th district, which includes Trumbull County, was number two on that list.

"It happened because of national politics, it happened because we were a very divided country, very partisan country in 2020 and it doesn't really speak to the strength or weakness of the local democratic party or local republican party for that matter," said Jeff Goodman, Trumbull County's Democratic Party Parliamentarian.

Still, it wasn't long ago that Trumbull County was a democratic stronghold. Polivka and Goodman will argue it still is, with most of the countywide offices being held by democrats. 21 News political analyst Bill Binning though believes we are in the midst of a political power shift.

"We are realigning, the county is changing, it's becoming more republican," Binning said. "I think it would be a mistake to say it is republican. It's becoming less democratic, more republican, more competitive. The last midterm the republicans did well, so they did well in '16, they did well in '18, they did well in '20, I think it's a pattern."

Polivka and Goodman disagree, calling what happened in 2020 more of an anomaly as opposed to a worrisome trend.

"It's not worrisome because nobody does Trump like Trump and if you don't have Trump, you don't have that factor and I predict we're going to see that," Goodman said. "I don't think that there has been an ideological shift in Trumbull County voters, I think they were rallied behind one candidate, a very dynamic, divisive candidate."

Former Democratic State Senator Capri Cafaro says it's still too early to tell if that truly is the case.

"Even though yes, there has a been a trend particularly over the last four years of going towards the GOP, we have to see whether, is that a Donald Trump phenomenon, or a republican phenomenon or the fact that the Mahoning Valley or Trumbull County specifically is disillusioned with the democrats or at least the current sitting elected democrats and I don't think we're going to know that specific answer for two years or at least in the mid term elections," Cafaro said.

"If he is not on the ticket, if he is not rallying those voters, I think you are going to go back to the Trumbull County voters that we've known in the past who are more thoughtful who, especially in local elections who know their candidates," Goodman said. "These are people that for the most part live and work in their communities and they are going to pay attention."

Polivka and Goodman remain confident in the party moving forward and have no plans for any major changes.

"As far as our local party, we ran a fantastic campaign, one of the best campaigns we ever ran," Polivka said. "Most all of our democrats maintained office, there was a couple of us that lost by a small margin, 49-51 or 48-52, it wasn't like some big spread and most everyone retained their office."

They are planning a series of events to encourage voter registration, connecting candidates with the community and promoting their platform to help the working class.

"The democrats right now like the child tax credit that they just passed, you know that is going to help working class families, single mothers," Polivka said. "My mother raised four kids on her own and I think that is showing that we are investing in American people and the working-class people and I think a lot depends on how (President) Biden does over the next couple years to and hopefully God willing he can unify this country because this last year was the worst I've ever seen it."

"The democratic party in Trumbull County is well established and probably in the long run stronger than ever because I think what is happening right now is a wake-up call for a lot of voters," Goodman said.