21 News Analyst Dr. Bill Binning projects that Issue One will fail in the Ohio Special Election. Binning is the former chair of the YSU Political Science Department and longtime 21 News analyst.

Binning also tells 21 News he expects the "yes" votes to top out around 44%.

AP, NPR, and the Washington Post have also called the election against Issue One. 

You can click back to this article at any time to get the most up-to-date results statewide and across the valley. You can also watch our twitter and Facebook for regular updates on vote totals, and subscribe to our app notifications for major updates.

The information below will be updated frequently after polls close at 7:30 PM ET. Remember, if you're in line by 7:30 when polls close, you're still allowed to vote.

Statewide (>99% Reporting - Est. Participation: 38.48%):

Yes - 1,315,346 (42.99%)

No - 1,744,094 (57.01%)

 

By county:

Trumbull County (158 of 158 precincts reporting - Participation: 37.16%):

Yes - 21,376 (42.85%)

No - 28,507 (57.15%)

Mahoning County (212 of 212 precincts reporting - Est. Participation: 36.10%):

Yes - 24,147 (41.78%)

No - 33,652 (58.22%)

Columbiana County (73 of 73 precincts reporting - Est. Participation: 37.84%):

Yes - 14,728 (60.76%)

No - 9,510 (39.24%)

 

Senator Sherrod Brown said in a statement and on X that he think's Issue One has been defeated, keeping democracy "in the hands of voters."

 

While no official calls have been made, Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report, one of the nation's leading election outlets, says he thinks Issue One will fail.

 

Decision Desk HQ Project that Issue One FAILS:

 

Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown issued the following statement:

“Ohioans saw this amendment for what it was: a power grab by powerful people designed to silence their voices. By rejecting State Issue 1, Ohioans rejected special interests and demanded that democracy remain where it belongs – in the hands of voters, not the rich and powerful. That is what has always guided me and I am proud to stand with Ohioans in this fight.”

 

The Ohio Democratic Party issued the following statement:

"Tonight was an important victory for our state, the voters of Ohio and the principle of majority rule. Ohio Democrats were proud to play our part in stopping this political power grab by out-of-touch politicians at the statehouse – most notably Frank LaRose, who made himself the face of this effort and is now officially Ohio’s biggest loser."

 

The Ohio Federation of Teachers issued the following statement:

"Ohio voters from across the political spectrum sent a loud and clear message today that we believe in majority rule, we believe in ‘one person one vote,’ and we believe that these shared values are more important than what political party you’re in, what you look like, or where you live."

 

If passed, Issue one would have three effects on the process of amending the Ohio State Constitution:

  • All legislature and citizen-proposed amendments to the state constitution would require a 60% majority vote to pass as opposed to 50% +1.
  • Amendment petitions would require signatures from 5% of registered voters in all 88 counties rather than the current 44.
  • There would no longer be a 10-day "cure period" for citizens to add or fix signatures on their petitions which propose amendments.

The Issue One battle began this past spring, as the GOP-dominated Ohio State Legislature moved to call an August Special Election on the Issue despite having recently passed a law which did away with August special elections because of their high cost and low turnout. 

By the time Ohio voters began gathering petitions for amendments focused on reproductive rights and marijuana legalization, Issue One was being proposed in the State Legislature. The measure was adopted by the State House on April 19th, and subsequently by the Ohio Senate on May 10th. 

While the Issue was still in consideration, 21 News talked to retired Ohio Governor Bob Taft, a republican, who called issue one "especially bad policy."

John Kasich, another former Ohio Governor from the GOP, said that "Ohio is stronger when we can all lend our voices and we all have an equal chance to participate in the work of our state's democracy."

The Special Election for Issue One was ultimately called on May 10th of this year, setting the August 8th date and beginning the process for finding poll workers and starting early voting.

The state's Democrats have remained united against the issue, creating a bipartisan coalition against the measure that's proven difficult to overcome. Just recently, a USA Today-Suffolk poll showed 57% of Ohio voters against the issue.

Perhaps more interesting still is the abnormally high participation this Special Election has spurred. Ohio's abnormally generous early voting laws led nearly 700,000 people to vote early between June 23rd and August 6th. That's a turnout drastically higher than expected. Last May, in the 2022 midterm primaries less than half that many, 288,000 people, cast their votes early. The number is even lower when you go to our last August election, which had just 143,000 early votes.

While many current and former officials from both parties say the measure strips power from Ohio voters, the issue's proponents say it is a vital measure designed to protect our constitution from outside interests. 

Ohio's Secretary of State and current Senatorial Candidate Frank LaRose has been one of the state's biggest proponents of the issue. Just last week, LaRose went on a statewide tour to try and sell voters on passing the issue. On his tour, LaRose told 21 News in part that "We're talking about protecting the state constitution, yes against a radical abortion amendment, but also against a massive increase in minimum wage...against restrictive livestock care standards...and protecting our individual gun rights as well."

Current rules regulating how amendments are proposed and passed in Ohio have been in place since 1913. In the 111 years since, 71 citizen-led amendments and 156 amendments proposed by the Ohio General Assembly have made it onto the ballot. Had a 60% rule been in place, 41 of those amendments would not have passed.

If a 60% threshold had been in place, women and persons of color wouldn't be able to serve in the Ohio National Guard, the Ohio governor wouldn't have term limits, and many of the state's biggest cities wouldn't have casinos, among a host of other effects.
 
For more information on the history and interests behind Issue one, you can view more of 21 News's comprehensive reporting below: