According to many in The Valley, rain and the Trumbull County Fair go together like peanut butter and jelly. While rain is no stranger in the warm summer months, July features the highest average monthly precipitation in the area. Such a strong allegation calls for a bit of digging. Does it really rain more because of the fair? Or is this a bunch of baloney?

To understand the full picture, let’s get a scope of where and when the fair takes place. The Trumbull County Fair takes place outside of Cortland, with the fairgrounds situated in the center of the county. Additionally, the fair is a five-day event, starting on the second Tuesday of July, but there have been exceptions to that in the past. In the late 2010s, the fair was a seven-day Sunday to Sunday experience, and the fair has even begun in June in the past. 

We’ve taken every fair since 2010 (including 2020, where the fair itself was cancelled) and determined how much rain has fallen, how many days it’s fallen on, and its mark compared to average. While there isn’t a reliable rain gauge at the fairgrounds, the weather station at the Youngstown-Warren Regional Airport, eight miles away, serves as a good substitute.

Since 2010, it has rained 13 times, with the only exceptions coming during July 2018 and June/July 2010. Typically, when it does rain, it tends to fall around average. Another six fairs’ total precipitation was between 0.10” and 1”, which is within reason of the average rainfall of around 9/10ths of an inch during the five- or seven-day event.

However, there have been a few cases where rain has been the fair’s biggest enemy. Most notably in July 2013, when over four inches of rain fell during the fair’s five-day run, placing the accumulation almost three and a half inches above average.

 

 

All in all, since 2010, the average fairtime rain accumulation is 1.41 inches, which is over half an inch above the typical average rain accumulation for the dates each year of 0.90”. It is especially notable because the fair runs on different dates each year, each with its own set of precipitation averages and trends. Additionally, in five-day fair years, it typically rained two out of those five days.

So, yes, on the surface, the last 15 years of the Trumbull County fair have been more rainy than they should be. However, the title is a little misleading.

 

 

Over a five-day period, rainfall during the peak of July is more than likely to happen. Between July 8th through 13th, the dates of this year’s fair, the average annual rainfall is 0.83”. To put this into greater perspective, let’s compare this with the airport’s historical rainfall totals.

In 103 years of data, it has rained over 89 of these years. In terms of the fair, this means that historically speaking, there will be a 90% chance of rainfall throughout the five-day period. While it is fair to say that the fair is known for its rain, that doesn’t automatically mean that it wouldn’t rain otherwise!

So what does this mean for the fair this year? As of Tuesday afternoon, the fair’s opening day looks to be the best, with clearing skies and seasonable temperatures, setting up for a stunning first evening in Cortland.

 

 

Throughout the rest of the week, there will be a precipitation threat each day as a stationary front will loom over the area. Pop-up showers and thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon. Additionally, it will be warm and humid, with temperatures peaking in the mid-to-upper eighties each day. For those travelling to the fair each day past Tuesday, it would be your best bet to bring an umbrella, but don’t be surprised if it ends up staying in your bag throughout the day.

By the fair’s final day, there looks to be a more organized rain event in the works, though timing will need to be ironed out in the days leading up. As it looks now, Tuesday will be the best day to get out and enjoy what the Trumbull County Fair has to offer!
































To some in The Valley, rain and the Trumbull County Fair is the new peanut butter and jelly. While rain is common in the summer, such a strong allegation calls for a bit of digging. Does it really rain more because of the fair? Or is this a bunch of baloney? -SWITCH GRAPHIC- Let’s get some background first- -ADVANCE- The Trumbull County Fair takes place outside of Cortland, with the fairgrounds situated in the center of the county. I’m going to take every fair since 2010, including 2020’s dates, and see how much rain has fell, and compare it to average. There’s no gauge at the fairgrounds; but the weather station at the Youngstown Airport, eight miles away, serves as a good substitute.