As the Valley has experienced a growing rainfall deficit over the past three months, a significant drought has been declared in the area. The U.S. Drought Monitor, the organization responsible for classifying droughts across the country, designated much of Columbiana County as being in a severe drought during its most recent update.

Since 1999, the U.S. Drought Monitor has been a collaborative effort to monitor drought across the United States, Canada, and Mexico. It is produced jointly by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). Meteorologists at these organizations take turns hand-drawing these maps based on specific meteorological and hydrological criteria. Each map iteration is produced weekly, based on new data from Tuesday to Tuesday, then released on the next Thursday morning.

Precipitation anomalies are the most crucial aspect of drought-keeping. Simply put, the amount of rain/snowfall in a location will greatly control the other hydrological and agricultural factors below. As expected, if an area consistently earns a deficit of rainfall, drought will likely form. The Drought Monitor emphasizes long-term shortfalls, as deficits of multiple months will “crack the foundation” of areas better than a short dry spell. The Drought Monitor researches precipitation trends over a period of anywhere from one week to 180 days.

The Drought Monitor utilizes an index known as the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). It is a method for measuring drought. On short timescales, the SPI is closely related to soil moisture, while at longer timescales, the SPI can be related to groundwater and reservoir storage. Negative values tend to characterize the presence of drought. In our area, SPI values are currently negative.

Rain and snow can also impact the content of soil. Dry soil can have major implications for agriculture, which relies on drought-free conditions. Generally, the sunnier and warmer the conditions, the drier the soil tends to become.

EDDI, or the Evaporative Demand Drought Index, examines how anomalous the atmospheric evaporative demand ("the thirst of the atmosphere") is for a given location and across a certain time period. EDDI can notably capture the precursor signals of water stress very well, making it a strong tool for preparedness against flash droughts.

Applying these indices, it has become noticeable across the country that our area has become increasingly dry over the last few months. Soil moisture in the region is sitting within the 1st to 10th percentiles of dryness. SPI is overwhelmingly negative across Eastern OH and Western PA since mid-July, and one of just a handful of EDDI bullseyes is specifically focused on Columbiana County.

After consideration of numbers and statistics, experts on the U.S. Drought Monitor can place an area into one of six categories. The first, and best, is no drought. Once an area is heading towards drought conditions, it is considered to be “abnormally dry”. Here, crop growth can be halted without more watering, though effects at this stage are limited. Moderate drought, or the first stage of drought, is issued when experts determine that landscaping becomes stressed and the risk for wildfires increases in our area.

Severe Drought occurs as more hydrologic impacts become visible. This can be seen when creeks dry, and when trees begin to brown early. As of the most recent update on September 11, Columbiana County is experiencing this stage of drought.

Financial impacts become irrefutable during extreme drought. Crop harvests and dairy farming can become scarce, and any untreated plants will die. Topping the scale is exceptional drought, which can have impacts on everyday life. Famous droughts, such as the one in California in the mid-2010s, had to go through this stage for years. Water restrictions become commonplace, and fire risk skyrockets.

Pictured above is the most recent U.S. drought monitor, which was last updated on Thursday, September 11. Our entire TV viewing area is under “abnormally dry” (D0) conditions. Towns in Columbiana County are dealing with “Moderate Drought” (D1) conditions. As recently as this week, Severe Drought (D2) was introduced into Southern and Central Columbiana County. No rain has fallen in our area since September 6th. With warm, dry conditions forecasted through at least the second-to-last week of the month, the Storm Tracker team is expecting degradation of drought when the next update comes out this Thursday.