As our area heads into the middle of autumn, energy begins to turn towards Old Man Winter. It is the most volatile and unpredictable season in our area, and for that reason, it is the subject of numerous discussions and commentaries.

Chief meteorologist Eric Wilhelm releases a yearly winter forecast on behalf of WFMJ, slated for this year on November 11th. This station is one of several organizations that release official predictions based on data from satellites, long-range forecasts, and analogs. One way you also may be able to get a head start on Winter is from the yearly Farmer’s Almanac predictions, whose forecasts have been in the spotlight for over 200 years.

While usually known in the public by just one name, there are actually two separate Farmer’s almanacs that produce similar products.

 

 

The first one, cleverly named The Old Farmer’s Almanac, is the oldest continuously published periodical in North America, starting in 1792. The Farmer’s Almanac began publication 26 years later in 1818.

The Old Farmer’s Almanac contains topics such as gardening tips, sports, folklore, astronomy, and pop culture predictions, alongside its yearly long-range winter map. The periodical is published every September. The Farmer’s Almanac similarly covers other natural topics such as moon cycles, folklore, and outdoor activities. This publication is also produced annually, typically released towards the end of August, and it contains sixteen months of seasonal weather forecasts.

 

 

In terms of each publication’s weather predictions, both go by similar measures to procure their highly anticipated long-range maps. The Farmer’s Almanac splits the nation up into seven regions and takes in data such as solar cycles, astrology, and cyclic tidal action, among other factors. However, the organization does not publicly share many other details on how they forecast, including whether they take current and analog weather trends into account. The Old Farmer’s Almanac takes a similar approach, using astronomical indicators plus the usage of current satellite data. The organization splits the country into sixteen distinct climate zones for which they forecast.

 

 

Two of these regions overlap our area in the newly released Old Farmer’s Almanac map. Northern Trumbull and Mercer counties are currently predicted to be mild and dry for the wintertime. Further south, this area is expected to be cold and snowy during the winter months. 

 

 

Cold and snowy conditions are a theme that has been replicated in the most recent Farmer’s Almanac map, with this designation covering all of Ohio and far Western Pennsylvania.

While these two maps provide a first glimpse of weather trends throughout the winter, it is essential to note that long-range forecasting is a highly complex aspect of weather prediction. Experts, including Wilhelm, rely on regularly updated analogs and long-range guidance to give a glimpse into the future. An example of an analog is ENSO, responsible for the formation of El Niño and La Niña conditions in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean. Recall that these organizations tend to stray away from these signals in favor of more traditional approaches, such as astronomical or solar methods, leading to these predictions being incorrect more often.

 

 

In the past five years, the Farmer’s Almanac has typically predicted winters in our neck of the woods as “cold”- a rather vague word, though for this purpose will be interpreted as an anomalously cold season. In all but one season, average wintertime temperatures actually exceeded the 30-year average. Additionally, the Farmer’s Almanac predicted “flaky” or “snowy” seasons- again, vague wording, though if interpreted as an above-average snowy or flaky season, the evidence points against the Almanac all five years at the airport, thanks to below-average snowfall all five years.

To get a data-based, reliable winter weather forecast, Eric Wilhelm will be releasing his yearly winter weather forecast on Tuesday, November 11th, on the WFMJ Website and the Storm Tracker 21 app.