It’s no secret that this winter has been cold and snowy.

As of February 12, 2026, the Valley hasn’t seen a colder winter in almost fifty years. Thanks to repetitive lake-effect and our largest single-day snow since 2012, it’s been our snowiest winter so far in five years.

There are even more ways to compare the winter season. One index, the Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI), aims to objectively quantify the severity of local winters and compare it with other years.

The Midwest Regional Climate Center developed AWSSI to fill the void of not having a single metric to define how “bad” or “good” a winter is. Despite the name of the organization that created it, the index covers 365 locations across the entire United States. 

 

 

The index runs on a “point” system, with each point earned by the achievement of a specific variable or amount. These variables are the high temperature, low temperature, daily snowfall, and recorded snow depth. More points are earned if a variable is more “wintry”- for example, a location will receive one point if its high temperature is between 25°F and 32°F, while a high temperature of 12°F, the lowest the airport got to this winter, is good for four points. The complete variable and point listing is shown in the table below.

 

 

This means that each location across the country will vary in the amount of points they earn, essentially denoting that each city has a localized range. While cities in the frigid wintertime state of Minnesota may rack up 1,500 points during a typical season, others further south would only need 100 or so points to settle in on an average winter.

The AWSSI, developed around a decade ago, has retroactively taken all observed winters since the 1950-51 season and determined point values for each season at each city. The index then takes these points, develops a range, and comes up with five categories to describe a winter, based on the previous winter statistics it has in its database. If a season were mild, this would mean that the season has scored less points over 80% than other winters. A moderate winter describes a season in the 20th-39th percentile of other winters’ points. The middle fifth of winters would be termed as average. A severe winter would rank in the 60th-79th percentile of other winters’ points. The coldest, snowiest winters by point value would be termed as an extreme winter.

The threshold to eclipse each category is shown on the right-hand side of the graphic below. These are as of February 13th, and will increase as the winter season continues. Remember: the higher the point aggregate, the more “wintry” a season is.

 

 

Our AWSSI season started when cold air and snow gave us our first points on November 9th. Our season got an “extreme” push after more snow and cold air pushed in after Thanksgiving. Through December, the airport stayed in “extreme” classification as bits and pieces of snow and cold impinged on our area. By Christmas, the Valley’s points were stunted due to mild air. A snowstorm on New Year’s Eve got us back on a rapid pace, though the biggest push came on January 22nd when a monster snowstorm dropped 10.1 inches, with bitterly cold air following.

 

 

It comes as no surprise that the 2025-26 winter is currently in the extreme category. Recall that an extreme winter is in the top 20% of “worst” winters; this particular season compares as more severe than at least four of five since 1950-51.

 

 

 

 

While “extreme” winters beat four of five all-time, this particular winter has beaten each of the last ten years. Half of these years finished “mild”, while only one was ever characterized as “extreme” at any point after the New Year- that being the 2017-18 season, finishing as “severe”.

 

Youngstown is not alone in having a “severe” winter. Cities in the Northeast and Midwest, such as Indianapolis, Columbus, Pittsburgh, and New York, are also dealing with “extreme” winters to this point. The western half of the country is actually dealing with the opposite: Generally, any location west of the Missouri River is in seasons that are either “moderate” or “mild”. Several cities along the Rockies and Great Plains are even having record mild seasons, according to AWSSI. These cities include Denver, Salt Lake City, and Flagstaff, AZ.

 

 

Because the AWSSI point system guarantees points can only be gained and not lost, Youngstown’s winter is guaranteed to be at least an “average” winter, even if the season were to end today. While meteorological winter ends on March 1st, the winter season as defined by AWSSI starts and ends on a city’s first & last point-scoring event.