Much-needed rain is expected to fall across the Valley over the next few days. 

The month of February is almost two-thirds of the way through, and the Youngstown-Warren Regional Airport has only received 0.23” of liquid-equivalent precipitation since the start of the month, even with yesterday’s rain added on. 

Dense fog is the name of the game as Thursday morning opens. As visibility has decreased to less than half a mile, it will be essential to take extra care on the roads and allow more time for commuting to any morning plans. After the fog burns off, mainly cloudy skies will prevail for the majority of the day, before another chance for rain sets up. As a low-pressure system moves in from the southwest, some showers are possible as the day closes. These showers could turn heavy overnight, with thunderstorms not out of the question.

The system has been flagged as a level ? severe risk in SW OH, Indiana, and Illinois. A marginal risk, level ? on the scale, has been introduced in Columbiana and western Mahoning counties. Low-end threats of gusty showers and even isolated hail are possible as the bulk of the rain will move through overnight. This is the first serious threat of severe weather this calendar year.

As rain moves out, a cold front will blow by, dropping temperatures. We’ll reach the upper 50s in the morning but drop through the 40s during the day, with snow even becoming possible in the evening. Highs on Saturday will only reach the low-to-mid 40s, while partly cloudy. These temperatures, while still above average, are much closer to seasonable levels for this time of year.

The low-pressure system that is the source of all this weather will meander over our area through the weekend, gathering energy and moisture. By Saturday night, temperatures drop below freezing, and moisture will be conducive for snow to fall. We’re expecting light, scattered snow showers throughout the day, and with the unseasonably mild air that preceded it, accumulations are not the biggest concern as of now. Still, timing and specifics are too early at this point.

We’re anticipating some lingering snow to open the week, aided by a much-thawed Lake Erie. High temperatures will still be low, around 30 degrees.

After the snow comes to a close, we’ll remain cold on Tuesday. High temperatures will similarly be close to 30 degrees, though it won’t be as breezy.

Though the seven-day forecast will close chilly and wet, we’re expecting temperatures to rebound back above average for the final week of February.