COLUMBUS, Ohio - A state report forecasts a challenging six months for employment in the Youngstown-Warren metropolitan area, with the region predicted to see the second-steepest decline in Ohio.

The Ohio Leading Indicators report for April 2025, released by the state's Office of Workforce Development, projects an annual employment decrease of 1.76% for the Youngstown-Warren area over the next half-year.

This is only slightly better than the Cincinnati predicted drop of 1.77%, which is the highest in the state.

The statewide outlook is also negative, with Ohio's total employment expected to decrease at an annual rate of 1.63% over the next six months.

All eight of Ohio's largest metropolitan statistical areas are forecast to experience employment declines.

While the forecast is for a decline, the Youngstown-Warren area's nonfarm payroll employment in April was 168,900, showing a slight increase of 0.4% from March and a 1.2% increase from April 2024.

However, other key indicators point to potential issues. Initial claims for unemployment insurance in the Youngstown-Warren area surged in April, rising 56.2% from March and 74.0% from April 2024, reaching 1,445 claims.

The valuation of permits for new housing construction in the area also decreased, dropping 8.6% from March and 15.8% from April 2024, totaling $6.4 million.

Across Ohio, seasonally adjusted total nonfarm employment in April was 5,699,600, a 0.2% increase over the month and 1.0% over the year.

However, initial unemployment claims statewide increased 2.2% from March and a substantial 20.4% from April 2024.

The Ohio Leading Indicators report utilizes a model that examines seasonally adjusted total nonfarm employment to forecast growth rates.