Mahoning Valley - Inflation is expected to ease as we head into the new year.

For the sixth straight month, inflation continues to tick down, falling to the lowest level in more than a year. President Biden announcing a continuous decline in inflation but grocery stores and small businesses are still feeling the pinch of high prices.

Experts say food prices have been impacted by severe weather, labor shortages and Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine. 21 News checked in with how local businesses are doing as some price tags are staying at record highs. 

"Measured over the last 12 months, it has fallen 6.52%," President Biden said in a press conference Thursday. "That's down from 7.1% the month before."

But the sticker shock at grocery stores is sticking around.

"They're going to stay where they are right now they're not going to go anywhere," said Vince Furrie, President of Village Plaza Sparkle. 

An expensive trip to the grocery store as milk, chicken, coffee, bread and fruits and veggies see record high prices. All eyes are on egg prices as the national average for a dozen has more than doubled since 2021.

"Your fresh product, produce, deli, meat, bakery, maybe bakery, will maybe come in 2-3 weeks at a better price," Furrie explained. "But you won't see groceries until mid-year. They've already manufactured that product." 

Furrie said items like chicken have come down in price slightly but events like the Super Bowl could push those prices right back up. 

Valley bakeries including One Hot Cookie in Boardman are being hit hardest, having to buy highly inflated items like flour, milk, and eggs to keep their business going.

"We use farm fresh eggs whenever we can so we offset some of our egg prices that way," said Bergen Giordani, Co-owner of One Hot Cookie. "We did a slight [price] increase about 5 months ago. So, right now we're holding prices and we don't see any increase in the near future."

Giordani added small businesses see the same inflation that catches consumers in grocery stores, but they just see it on a larger scale through wholesalers.

"We see the cost of raw materials skyrocketing and you also see the minimum wage go up with the continuous labor shortage," Giordani explained. 

For some businesses, depending on what food they sell, inflation isn't their top concern. 

"For the majority, we're seeing a little bit more of a decline," said Melissa Poland, Owner of Sweet Melissa's Good Eats. 

Poland told 21 News the items they buy for the business have drastically lowered.

"At the highest I had to pay for lettuce, I had to pay $118 a case," Poland explained. And now, we're hovering around $33 right now. We go through 12-16 cases a day. It's not just produce, we've also seen increases in paper products, nuts for salads and oils for the vinaigrette dressings. It is across the board with how much the pricing has gone up."

But these small businesses tell 21 News' Erin Simonek as people try to keep money in their wallets, they're not stopping by local eateries as much. This, in turn, has an impact on the local economy. 

"Eating carry-out is a luxury for people," Poland said. "People can do without going out to eat. They can pack their lunch when they go to work. Maybe, if they go out twice a week to eat, now they're only going out once. So, we have seen less volume but it's remained steady."

Poland added January is a time when Sweet Melissa's slows down but picks up by mid-February, a trend she's still expecting to see this year. 

Furrie added shopping sales and specials on items in grocery stores will help your wallet. Some Valley businesses, holding their breath as they expect the cost of food items to continue to fluctuate in the near future.

"In the food industry, everything is so cyclical and everybody that works in the food industry is used to prices fluctuating," Poland explained. "So, you just ride the wave."