September was a successful month for the retail industry, increasing 1.9%, with strong growth in department store and building material and supply sales. But PNC economists expect the recovery to slow in coming months.

"We're transitioning to a reopening phase where the economy recovers very very quickly to a more gradual recovery phase," said Bill Adams, PNC Senior Economist. 

Adams said slower job gains last month with the expiration of the additional unemployment insurance benefits will both have a negative affect on retail.

"With less money going to households who had workers lose jobs in this downturn, that's going to turn into less spending power in coming months," Adams said.

But with the holiday season coming up quick, Adams says retail sales are strongest during holiday spending. With the pandemic, Adams thinks retailers will have some of a drag this year compared to regular holiday sales.

"From the expiration of stimulus measures, to reduced unemployment payments, to households where people have lost jobs," Adams said. 

Adams added the limited capacity stores must follow have also taken a hit to sales and that trend is expected to carry into the holiday season.